HONG KONG — China’s exports rose more than expected last month, government figures released Sunday showed, as resurgent demand from consumers in the United States and the European Union helped put the Asian manufacturing juggernaut on track for its biggest annual trade surplus since 2008.
China’s exports of goods rose 12.7 percent in November compared with a year earlier, while imports increased 5.3 percent, resulting in a trade surplus for the month of $33.8 billion, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
The reported export growth outpaced expectations of a 7.1 percent increase, while the increase in imports was less than the 7.2 percent economists had forecast, according to the average estimates from a survey of economists by Thomson Reuters.
Analysts said that although the yearly comparison figures were partly bolstered by companies’ over invoicing — an anomaly of Chinese trade data — the underlying export trends were encouraging.
“The year-on-year growth data overstates the actual export momentum,” Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong, wrote Sunday in a research note. “Nonetheless, there are signs that the global activity and trade cycle is gaining momentum, driven by the recovery in high-income countries, and China’s exporters are benefiting from that.”
Improving demand in the West for Chinese goods led to greater-than-expected growth in shipments to major trading partners. China’s exports to the United States rose 17.3 percent last month, while shipments to the European Union rose 18.5 percent, customs figures show.
As a result, China’s trade surplus is soaring to levels not seen in years — a development that could draw scrutiny from Western trading partners.


Dead Cat Bounce: Commodity markets reacted favorably last week on the news a budget pact was reached on a 2 year agreement that stops the threat of a government shutdown in January. In addition we saw GDP growth of 3.6% in Q3 revised from an earlier 2.8%. Consumer spending only advanced 1.4%, he weakest since the recession ended.

 

The Euro also helped commodities as it jumped to a 5 week high breaking out a $1.35 trading range on the news that ECB President Mario Draghi would keep interest rates at current or lower levels for “an extended period”.  Here in the US payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 203k while the jobless rate dropped from 7.3% to 7%, mostly due to people leaving the workforce.

 

Starting Tuesday Fed officials go into a “blackout” period where they stop speaking publically ahead of the December 17-18 Fed policy meeting.  November retail sales come out Thursday and the PPI index comes out Friday.